🔗 Share this article

When dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained stuck in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. They had been 12 hours in strained discussions, with scores ministers representing multiple blocs of countries ranging from the most vulnerable nations to the wealthiest economies.

Frustration mounted, the air stifling as weary delegates faced up to the harsh reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit faced the brink of complete breakdown.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

Scientific evidence has shown for more than a century, the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

Nevertheless, during nearly three decades of yearly climate meetings, the urgent need to stop fossil fuel use has been addressed only once – in a agreement made two years ago at Cop28 to "move beyond fossil fuels". Officials from the Arab Group, Russia, and a few other countries were adamant this would not be repeated.

Growing momentum for change

Simultaneously, a increasing coalition of countries were just as committed that advancement on this issue was vitally needed. They had created a plan that was attracting expanding support and made it apparent they were prepared to stand their ground.

Developing countries strongly sought to move forward on securing financial assistance to help them address the already disastrous impacts of extreme weather.

Turning point

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were willing to leave and force a collapse. "We were close for us," commented one government representative. "I was ready to walk away."

The critical development came through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, senior representatives left the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the lead Saudi negotiator. They urged wording that would subtly reference the global commitment to "shift from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unexpected agreement

Instead of explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Upon deliberation, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably approved the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Applause rang out. The agreement was done.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took an incremental move towards the phaseout of fossil fuels – a uncertain, insufficient step that will scarcely affect the climate's ongoing trajectory towards disaster. But nevertheless a significant departure from complete stagnation.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Complementing the indirect reference in the official document, countries will start developing a plan to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a non-binding program led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the necessary cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries achieved a threefold increase to $120bn of regular financial support to help them manage the impacts of climate disasters
• This funding will not be delivered in full until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "equitable change process" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors move toward the clean economy

Differing opinions

While our planet approaches the brink of climate "irreversible changes" that could destroy ecosystems and plunge whole regions into disorder, the agreement was far from the "major breakthrough" needed.

"The summit provided some small advances in the right direction, but in light of the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," stated one climate expert.

This flawed deal might have been all that was possible, given the international tensions – including a US president who shunned the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the increasing presence of conservative movements, persistent fighting in multiple regions, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the oil and gas companies – were at last in the focus at the climate summit," says one policy convener. "There is no turning back on that. The opportunity is open. Now we must transform it into a actual pathway to a safer world."

Significant divisions revealed

Even as nations were able to celebrate the formal approval of the deal, Cop30 also revealed significant divisions in the primary worldwide framework for tackling the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are agreement-dependent, and in a period of geopolitical divides, agreement is increasingly difficult to reach," observed one global leader. "I cannot pretend that these talks has provided all that is needed. The difference between our current position and what science demands remains concerningly substantial."

When the world is to avert the gravest consequences of climate collapse, the global discussions alone will fall far short.