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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers ascending together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still